Dr. Vladimir Andric

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of super cycles, i.e. long waves, in global energy production and consumption between 1900 and 2016. The statistical data indicate the presence of long waves in global energy production and consumption between 1956 and 1999. According to the econometric estimates, the peak of the cycle is in 1975, immediately after the 1973 global oil price shock. If the paper's econometric estimates are statistically valid, one might expect another super cycle in global primary energy production and consumption between 2000 and 2043, with the peak of the cycle occurring around 2020. In addition, policy makers and other stakeholders in the energy sector could utilise the results of this paper in forecasting future global energy supply and demand. To generalize the findings of this article, potential avenues for further research include broadening the analyses for specific energy products, most notably coal, oil and natural gas.