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PRAY-PREDATOR MODEL APPLIED TO EVALUATE THE PRICE OF COMMODITIES: EXTENSION FOR WORLD ECONOMY
Marcos De Campos1
1Federal Fluminense University, Volta Redonda, Brazil

PAPER: 516/Environmental/Regular (Oral) OS
SCHEDULED: 14:00/Mon. 21 Oct. 2024/Dazzle D.

ABSTRACT:

In 1926, Vito Volterra presented the Pray-Predator model to evalute the effect of time on the population of species [1].

In mathematics, the Lotka-Volterra equations are a couple of first-order, nonlinear, differential equations, which can be used for describing chaotic systems.   Lotka-Volterra equations are typically  used for describing the dynamics of biological systems, when two species interact: one as prey and the other as predator.

The model can be used to evalute the economy. The idea of Adam Smith of the “Invisible hand” [2] is completely wrong.

Unfortunately, Adam Smith reasoning has dominated the economy for centuries, maybe.

Here it is shown that some economic crisis [3], as 1929 [4] and 1987 [ 5], may have been origin on the excess of capital.

The reasoning presented here can be used to understand variations of  price of commodities, as discussed previously [6].

Thus “bubbles” in economy [7] can be predicted, thus mitigating the nephast effect of possible stock market crisis. The Lotke -Volterra equations [8] can be used for the prediction of such “bubbles”.

 

REFERENCES:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equations
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_hand
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
[5] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yuppie.asp
[6] https://ojs.brazilianjournals.com.br/ojs/index.php/BRJD/article/view/16770
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble
[8] https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-0-85729-115-8_13