Andre Faaij

Abstract:

Deep GHG emission reduction is needed within 3 decades to avoid the worst effects of climate change. At the same time, a more circular economy is to be realized as well. Industry is responsible for a large share of the global GHG emissions and energy and raw material demand is diverse, caused by a wide range of fundamentally different production processes and technologies.

Achieving a net zero or even negative GHG emission industry within 3 decades is therefore a daunting challenge. At the same time, energy efficiency improvement, fundamentally new processes such as biobased chemical industry vs. petrochemical industry, or electrified processes, the use of low carbon energy carriers as green electricity, green hydrogen and biomass, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and, last but not least, a change to circular value chains with strongly reduced demand for primary materials offer ample opportunities. 

However, what are optimal combinations for each sector over time is a question of daunting complexity, with many interdependencies between the decarbonizing energy system (and energy infrastructure) and industry itself. Speed of innovation and cost decline versus the lifetime of the capital stock in industry is another fundamental set of factors determining optimal pathways. 

The presentation addresses the opportunities for achieving cost effective pathways and what Research, Development, Demonstration and Deployment (RDDD) agenda emerges from these insights, including options to achieve negative emissions (e.g. by BECCS options). The outlook for many core industries (such as steel, chemicals and plastics) is that zero or even negative GHG emissions can be achieved with a mix of mentioned options combined with competitive cost levels when compared to future fossil fuel prices. At the same time, a circular economy is realized, while all these future processes are much cleaner compared to their conventional counterparts. 

International collaboration is highly desired to realize such pathways because the R&D and upscaling efforts needed for all key sectors and industry regions are too large for any country alone. Overall however, the transition to a (more than) GHG neutral and circular industry especially offers first of all  a set of interlinked major opportunities.

This contribution is based on extensive advanced system analysis modelling work on regional, national and international level, combined with rigorous analysis of process analysis and insights in technological learning of a wide range of mitigation options.